Prediction Sugar And Cane Production On Indonesia In 2019

Contributed Article By : Purnomo Aji, Head of Sugar Research Center, PT.Perkebunan Nusantara X, Surabaya, East Java, Indonesia.

The development of sugar cane in Indonesia

including its industry, tends to be stagnant or there is no significant development, ranging from the amount of sugar cane plantations, to the production of sugar cane and the yield even tends to decrease.
Sugarcane production and yield in Indonesia is strongly influenced by climate change, because almost no facilities and infrastructure are found to adjust to climate change and are very dependent on rainfall, especially the availability of water (irrigation and drainage),

in high rainfall the water cannot be flowed perfectly out of the field (waterlogging) while in low rainfall there is no water that can be flowed into the field, this is due to the damage to the management system of our agricultural land, where a lot of agricultural land changes its function (turns into industrial and residential areas) thus damaging irrigation facilities and Existing drainage (not functioning optimally), In these conditions it is certain that crop productivity will tend to rise and fall (fluctuative).

As discussed above, the territory of Indonesia, especially East Java, cane production is strongly influenced by climate, plus there is no or not ready facilities and infrastructure to anticipate climate change, which ultimately productivity can not be stable and tends to fluctuate (up and down), this also supported by the composition of varieties that have not been able to adapt well to climate change, existing varieties such as PS 862, PS 851, PS 881, PSJK 922, PSDK 923, and BL tend to only have the ability to adapt to one climate condition (eg sugar content of BL varieties good in dry conditions but not in wet conditions )

Production of sugar cane in 2019 is affected by the climate this year and the coming year, this year (2018), when entering the vegetative growth phase the amount of rainfall is very little and the temperature is very high, on land that only relies on rainfall will greatly affect production, because it can be ascertained that the length of the stem will stagnate so that the length of the stem cannot be optimal, while when entering the cooking phase (June to September) it is predicted that rainfall will still remain and is estimated to be equal to 2016 of +/- 110 mm / month and affect the amount of water in the sugar cane stem so that the weight of sugar cane can be optimal but the sugar content cannot rise. By looking at the realization of the productivity of tons / ha of sugar and yield (cane tonnage ), where during the harvest season it has an excess rainy season for 4 years (2007, 2010, 2013 and 2016) and there are no real plans and actions to anticipate climate change, the productivity of sugar cane is predicted ranges from +/- 85 tons / ha with sugar content on +/- 6.5%

In total, sugar cane production also a is strongly influenced by the total area, and is predicted not to increase and tends to decline due to socio-economic problems, such as the inconsistency of farmers’ sugar sales, sugar prices below operating costs, the transfer of some subsidized fertilizer quotas to other crops, and the closure of some factories sugar which is inefficient and shifts to other profitable commodity crops, although it is not easy for sugarcane farmers to switch other commodities because it is related to the habits and reluctance of sugarcane farmers to start something new from the start.

Predictions of productivity and yield above are estimates if not there are real activities to improve the cultivation pattern, to anticipate the impacts of climate change in 2019, of course, the losses can be minimized by several activities, including; planting varieties that can withstand a number of conditions (currently not available), then what can be done is structuring the composition of varieties so that the stability of production can be maintained (because in 2019 including the wet season, planting varieties with earlier maturity is prioritized), giving water to in 2018 (dry conditions) are needed so that the sugar cane does not stagnate, then to anticipate a long rainy season in 2019 which results in the withdrawal of sugar cane cooking time the field is obliged to do the korah / deepening of the drainage so that the water can be treated properly and make the field always dry, so maturity can run well. If needed it can also be done ZPK (ripener) application (substance boosting) so that it can spur sugar cane to mature faster. In addition, it is necessary to prepare harvesting facilities and infrastructures, such as proper cutting and transport so that the loss rate in the field can be avoided and sugar cane can be harvested at the right time.

Then hat is the prediction of sugar and cane production in 2019?

As discussed above, the territory of Indonesia, especially East Java, cane production is strongly influenced by climate, plus there is no or not ready facilities and infrastructure to anticipate climate change, which ultimately productivity can not be stable and tends to fluctuate (up and down), this also supported by the composition of varieties that have not been able to adapt well to climate change, existing varieties such as PS 862, PS 851, PS 881, PSJK 922, PSDK 923, and BL tend to only have the ability to adapt to one climate condition (eg sugar content of BL varieties good in dry conditions but not in wet conditions )

Production of sugar cane in 2019 is affected by the climate this year and the coming year, this year (2018), when entering the vegetative growth phase the amount of rainfall is very little and the temperature is very high, on land that only relies on rainfall will greatly affect production, because it can be ascertained that the length of the stem will stagnate so that the length of the stem cannot be optimal, while when entering the cooking phase (June to September) it is predicted that rainfall will still remain and is estimated to be equal to 2016 of +/- 110 mm / month and affect the amount of water in the sugar cane stem so that the weight of sugar cane can be optimal but the sugar content cannot rise. By looking at the realization of the productivity of tons / ha of sugar and yield (cane tonnage ), where during the harvest season it has an excess rainy season for 4 years (2007, 2010, 2013 and 2016) and there are no real plans and actions to anticipate climate change, the productivity of sugar cane is predicted ranges from +/- 85 tons / ha with sugar content on +/- 6.5%

In total, sugar cane production also a is strongly influenced by the total area, and is predicted not to increase and tends to decline due to socio-economic problems, such as the inconsistency of farmers’ sugar sales, sugar prices below operating costs, the transfer of some subsidized fertilizer quotas to other crops, and the closure of some factories sugar which is inefficient and shifts to other profitable commodity crops, although it is not easy for sugarcane farmers to switch other commodities because it is related to the habits and reluctance of sugarcane farmers to start something new from the start.

Predictions of productivity and yield above are estimates if not there are real activities to improve the cultivation pattern, to anticipate the impacts of climate change in 2019, of course, the losses can be minimized by several activities, including; planting varieties that can withstand a number of conditions (currently not available), then what can be done is structuring the composition of varieties so that the stability of production can be maintained (because in 2019 including the wet season, planting varieties with earlier maturity is prioritized), giving water to in 2018 (dry conditions) are needed so that the sugar cane does not stagnate, then to anticipate a long rainy season in 2019 which results in the withdrawal of sugar cane cooking time the field is obliged to do the korah / deepening of the drainage so that the water can be treated properly and make the field always dry, so maturity can run well. If needed it can also be done ZPK (ripener) application (substance boosting) so that it can spur sugar cane to mature faster.

In addition, it is necessary to prepare harvesting facilities and infrastructures, such as proper cutting and transport so that the loss rate in the field can be avoided and sugar cane can be harvested at the right time.

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