Thai Sugar Outlook 2025 Bright: SCB EIC Highlights Cane Surge, Export Drive Despite Price Dip

The SCB Economic Intelligence Center (SCB EIC) projects continued growth for Thailand’s sugar industry in 2025. Despite anticipated lower export prices, the sector is set for a significant boost from a substantial increase in sugarcane volume as drought conditions ease. This is expected to raise sugar production in the 2024/2025 crop year to 10.1 million tons from 92.0 million tons of cane.

While average export prices are projected to fall, the overall export value is set to increase due to a significant surge in export volume, estimated at 6.2 million tons. Early 2025 exports showed strong volume compensation for price reductions. This trend is expected to accelerate, driven by remaining domestic sugar stocks (over 4.6 million tons) and an increased focus on higher-priced white sugar exports. The domestic sugar consumption market is also forecast to grow to 56 billion baht, up 1.3%, supported by Thailand’s economic recovery.

However, the industry faces risks including global economic slowdown, drought, and geopolitical uncertainties. Long-term challenges involve adapting to the low-carbon economy, sustainability (ESG), and health trends. SCB EIC warns of potential rising production costs from carbon taxes and environmental standards, alongside slower consumer demand as healthier options gain traction.

Domestically, increased cane volume is expected to ease competition in procurement, boosting sugar and byproduct output and thus mill profitability. After a profit decline in 2024 due to lower output and high cane costs, listed sugar producers anticipate a recovery in 2025 with improved supply.

The Thai sugar industry operates as a semi-monopoly, with the top five major producers holding over 54% of the market share: Mitr Phol Group (23.9%), Thai Roong Ruang (9.1%), Korat (8.9%), Tamaka-KSL (6.4%), and Thai Ekalahk-KTIS (5.8%). The sector is closely regulated by the government through the Sugarcane and Sugar Act, controlling mill numbers, ex-factory pricing, and revenue-sharing.

For sustainable future competition, operators should focus on brand development, product quality, alternative sugars (e.g., low-calorie), and ESG frameworks. Companies that build strong farmer relationships, maintain high efficiency, and adapt to health trends will gain a long-term advantage.